American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, "Forecasting tournaments: Tools for increasing transparency and the quality of debate", "Identifying and Cultivating "Superforecasters" as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions", "The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics", "Accounting for the effects of accountability", "Accountability and ideology: When left looks right and right looks left", "Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? Focusing on results might be good for short-term performance, but it can be an obstacle to long-term learning.. In the first chapter of the book, Grant outlines three common mindsets coined by political scientist Phil Tetlock: preacher, prosecutor, and politician. Part IV: Conclusion Psychological safety: The ability to take risks without fear of punishment or reprisal. is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books.[1]. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin . In 2015, Tetlock and Dan Gardners collaborative book on prediction examines why, while most peoples predictions are only slightly better than chance, certain people seem to possess some level of actual foresight. The Good Judgment Project was first developed as an entry into a competition for accurately forecasting geopolitical events, which was being hosted by The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.12Despite the impressive competition, The Good Judgment Project won the tournament. From 1984 to 2004 Tetlock tracked political pundits' ability to predict world events, culminating in his 2006 book Expert Political Judgment. Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. He coined the term superforecaster to refer to individuals with particularly good judgment, who are able to foresee future outcomes far more accurately than your average person. Just a few more efforts at rethinking can move the needle.. Opening story: Mike Lazaridis, the founder of the BlackBerry smartphone. Realistically, Grant could have turned each section into three separate bookshe covers a lot of ground that could benefit from greater depth. Arkes, H., &Tetlock, P.E. Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Master's degree in 1976. The three modes (and a quick explanation of each) are: Preacher - we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting our ideals as sacred Prosecutor - we will pick apart the logic of the opposition's idea to prove our own point, marshaling the flaws in others the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. After publishing this study in 2005, he spent years attempting to uncover what sets these superforecasters apart.1Research into superforecasters was conducted by The Good Judgment Project, an initiative Tetlock founded with Barbara Mellers, a colleague from the University of Pennsylvania.2The research Tetlock and his team conducted demonstrated that the key attributes of a superforecaster are teamwork, thinking in terms of probabilities, drawing knowledge from a variety of sources, and willingness to own up to their mistakes and take a different approach.3, Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most., Philip Tetlock inSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Superforecasters have been shown to be so impressive in their ability to forecast future outcomes that they have outperformed highly trained intelligence analysts who have access to classified information that the superforecasters do not.4In their 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner trace patterns in forecasting through history. How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? 29). Present schooling still relies heavily on the lecture. Isaac Asimov: Great discoveries often begin not with Eureka! but with Thats funny. modern and postmodern values. They too are prone to forgetting their professional tools. freedom and equality. [38][39] One consequence of the lack of ideological diversity in high-stakes, soft-science fields is frequent failures of what Tetlock calls turnabout tests.[40][41][42]. Its the habits we develop as we keep revising our drafts and the skills we build to keep learning., Chapter 10: Thats Not the Way Weve Always Done It. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, He is the author of three books: Expert Political Judgment: How 9 Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Dont try to politic a prosecutor, and be very careful if prosecuting a popular politician. This mindset embraces Grants idea of rethinking. Even criticize them. We identify with our group or tribe. How Can We Know? Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. (2002). The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals. [3] The original aim of the tournament was to improve geo-political and geo-economic forecasting. Even a single idea can curb overconfidence. He is author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for . One of Philip Tetlocks big ideas* is that we are typically operating in one of three modes when expressing or receiving an idea. Visit www . If necessary, discuss your orders. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. Expert Political Judgment. Contact: Philip Tetlock, (614) 292-1571; Tetlock.1@osu.edu Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu. Alternatively, those wanting to get a good sense for the book without reading it cover to cover will profit from reading the introduction, Part 1, and the helpful appendix of practical takeaways titled Actions for Impact.. [16], In addition to his work on the bias-attenuating versus bias-amplifying effects of accountability, Tetlock has explored the political dimensions of accountability. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. [28], Tetlock has a long-standing interest in the tensions between political and politicized psychology. We would shut down., Philip Tetlock,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. His career has had a major impact on decision-making processes worldwide, as his discovery of superforecasters has enabled him to uncover the attributes and methodologies necessary for making accurate predictions. It implies that we have arrived at an optimal solution. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. Counterfactual thinking: considering alternative realities, imagining different circumstances and outcomes. When promoting your idea, you were being a Preacher - arguing your point of view based on a set of prior beliefs. the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on the usefulness of forecasting tournaments in assessing one key component of good judgment: accuracy); the impact of accountability on judgment and choice; the constraints that sacred values place on the boundaries of the thinkable; the difficult-to-define distinction between political versus politicized psychology; and. We hesitate at the very idea of rethinking., When it comes to our own knowledge and opinions, we often favor. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. In the most comprehensive analysis of expert prediction ever conducted, Philip Tetlock assembled a group of some 280 anonymous volunteerseconomists, political scientists, intelligence analysts . When were locked in preacher mode, we are set on promoting our ideas (at the expense of listening to others). Researchers in the 20th century reported similar findings: patients unaware of their situation and unable to learn from experience. Apparently, "even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect"[9] when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals. Great listeners are more interested in making their audiences feel smart., Part III: Collective Rethinking System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. Tetlock, P. E. (2011). How Can We Know? When, for instance, do liberals and conservatives diverge in the preferences for "process accountability" that holds people responsible for respecting rules versus "outcome accountability" that holds people accountable for bottom-line results? As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. Skeptics are those who dont believe everything they hear. Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Jeff Bezos: People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. They challenged each other's thinking and this allowed them to improve their ideas through a continuous feedback loop. For millennia, great thinkers and scholars have been working to understand the quirks of the human mind. The lesson is that he lacked flexibility in his thinking. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. When were in prosecution mode, we actively attack the ideas of others in an effort to win an argument. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. The interviewer serves as a guide, not a leader or advisor. This is the mindset of the scientist. Insights and interesting reads delivered straight to your inbox. Tetlock, P.E., (2000). As in his book, Tetlock describes why a select few people seem to be able to make accurate predictions about the future people he refers to as superforecasters. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. It refers to who must answer to whom for what. When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Plan ahead to determine where they can find common ground. Debate topic: Should preschools be subsidized by the government? In each of the three mindsets, the truth takes a back seat to other considerations: being right, defending your beliefs, and currying favor. The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin's 1950 essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox"). So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. Escalation of commitment is another (psychological factor). Ellen Ochoa (NASA astronaut and director) 3x5 note card reminded her to ask these questions: How do you know? is an important question to ask both of ourselves and of others. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Remember: real-life scientists can easily fall into preacher, prosecutor, politician modes too. Learn to ask questions that dont have a single right answer. We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. In the same study that yielded these somewhat sobering findings, however, Tetlock noticed that a few experts stood out from the crowd and demonstrated real foresight. Tetlock, P.E. Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. Affirming the persons desire and ability to change. He dubbed these people superforecasters. Since 2011, Tetlock and his wife/research partner Barbara Mellers have been co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a research collaborative that emerged as the winner of the IARPA tournament. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person., Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Masters degree in 1976.8He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979.9Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in management, psychology, and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, the Ohio State University, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he is a current faculty member.10Broadly, his research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.11, In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 In this hour-long interview, Tetlock offers insight into what people look for in a forecaster everything from reassurance to entertainment and what makes a good forecaster it requires more than just intelligence. How Can we Know? I hate you!). The book also profiles several "superforecasters." The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. Western society views happiness at the individual level rather than the communal or societal level (interconnectedness). [43][44][45][46][47] Hypothetical society studies make it possible for social scientists to disentangle these otherwise hopelessly confounded influences on public policy preferences. Why do you think its correct?
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